Prepared for the Canola Council of Canada by:
Serecon Management Consulting Inc.
and Koch Paul Associates - January 2001
| TABLE OF CONTENTS | |
| Glossary of Terms | |
| 1.0 Introduction | |
| 1.1 Background | 1.3 Study Methodology |
| 1.2 Study Objectives | |
| 2.0 Transgenic/Conventional Producer Survey | |
| 2.1 Survey Methodology | 2.7.4 Revenue |
| 2.2 Survey Results | 2.7.5 Grower Reported Return per Acre |
| 2.3 Fertilizer Inputs | 2.8 Agronomic Practice Change |
| 2.4 Herbicide Inputs | 2.8.1 Canola Acreage and Rotations |
| 2.5 Operations (Labour and Equipment) | 2.8.2 Seeding Practices |
| 2.5.1 Seeding Operations | 2.8.3 Conservation Tillage |
| 2.5.2 Herbicide Applications | 2.8.4 Weed and Volunteer Canola Management |
| 2.5.3 Fertilizer Applications | 2.8.5 Crop segregation |
| 2.5.4 Tillage and Harrowing Operations | 2.8.6 Services and Rentals |
| 2.5.5 Combined Operations | 2.9 History of Transgenic Use |
| 2.6 Miscellaneous Inputs | 2.10 Attitudes Toward Transgenics |
| 2.6.1 Scouting | 2.10.1 Benefits and Reasons for Using Transgenics |
| 2.6.2 Irrigation | 2.10.2 Disadvantages and Reasons for Not Using Transgenics |
| 2.6.3 Other Operating Costs | 2.10.3 Impact if Transgenics Were No Longer Available |
| 2.6.4 Equipment Investment and Divestiture | 2.11 Summary |
| 2.7 Yield, Grade and Revenue | 2.11.1 Summary Per Acre Costs and Revenue |
| 2.7.1 Yield | 2.11.2 Summary Contribution to Agri-Business |
| 2.7.2 Dockage | 2.11.3 Summary Agronomic Impacts |
| 2.7.3 Grade | |
| 3.0 Case Studies | |
| 3.1 Description of Case Study Operations | 3.2.4 Weed Management Practices |
| 3.2 Agronomics Practices | 3.2.5 Soil and Water Conservation Practices |
| 3.2.1 Variety Selection and Acreage of Production | 3.2.6 Harvest Methods and Timing |
| 3.2.2 Tillage and Planting Practices | 3.3 Financial Performance |
| 3.2.3 Fertilization Practices | 3.4 Environmental and Social Aspects |
| 4.0 Economic Analysis | |
| 4.1 Introduction and Approach | 4.6 Economic Analysis Summary and Conclusions |
| 4.2 The Canola Industry Economic Model | 4.6.1 Direct Economic Impacts |
| 4.2.1 Structure | 4.6.2 Aggregate Impacts |
| 4.2.2 Data Assumptions | 4.6.3 Opportunity Costs |
| 4.3 Economic Model Results | 4.7 Indirect and Induced Impacts |
| 4.3.1 Direct Economic Impacts | 4.7.1 Multiplier Impacts |
| 4.4 Environmental Impacts | 4.7.2 Total Economic Impacts |
| 4.4.1 Herbicide Use | 4.7.3 Impacts On Canola Prices |
| 4.4.2 Fertilizer Use | 4.8 Environmental and Resource Use Results |
| 4.4.3 Fuel Consumption | 4.8.1 Herbicide Use |
| 4.4.4 Transgenic Canola's Impact On Canola Prices | 4.8.2 Fertilizer Use |
| 4.4.5 Long Term Impacts of Transgenic Canola on Prices and Exports | 4.8.3 Fuel Savings |
| 4.5 Secondary and Multiplier Impacts | |
| 5.0 Summary and Conclusions | |
| 5.1 Agronomics | 5.2.3 Summary of Economic Impacts |
| 5.2 Economic Analysis | 5.2.4 Market Responses |
| 5.2.1 Direct Effects | 5.3 Environmental And Social Aspects |
| 5.2.2 Indirect and Induced Effects | |
| LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES | |
| 1.0 Introduction | |
| Figure 1.1 Study Methodology | |
| 2.0 Transgenic/Conventional Producer Survey | |
| Table 2.1 Sample and Margin of Error by System | Table 2.15 Conventional 1999 Summer Fallow Herbicide Applications |
| Table 2.2 Sample Distribution by Geography | Table 2.16 Cost of Seeding Operations |
| Table 2.3 Percentage of Transgenic Growers Planting Each Variety | Table 2.17 Cost of Tillage and Harrowing |
| Table 2.4 Percentage of Conventional Growers Planting Each Variety | Table 2.18 Cost of Combined Operations |
| Table 2.5 Seeding Rate | Table 2.19 Combined Operations and Costs for Various Practices |
| Table 2.6 Seed Type | Table 2.20 Cost of Scouting Operations |
| Table 2.7 Computed Seed Costs | Table 2.21 Yield Before Dockage (% of Growers) |
| Table 2.8 Transgenic Fertilizer Costs | Table 2.22 Dockage |
| Table 2.10 Transgenic Herbicide Inputs | Table 2.23 Grade |
| Table 2.11 Conventional Herbicide Inputs | Table 2.24 Transgenic Canola Revenue Summary |
| Table 2.12 Trnasgenic: Fall 1999 and Spring/Summer/Pre-harvest 2000 Herbicide Applications | Table 2.25 Conventional Canola Revenue Summary |
| Table 2.13 Transgenic 1999 Summer Fallow Herbicide Applications | Table 2.26 Summary Cost Per Acre |
| Table 2.14 Conventional: Fall 1999, Spring/Summer/Pre-harvest 2000 Herbicide Applications | Table 2.27 Summary Economic Impacts |
| 3.0 Case Studies | |
| Figure 3.1 Percent of Varieties Grown | Table 3.1 Source of Canola Information |
| Figure 3.2 Percent of Acres Grown | |
| 4.0 Economic Analysis | |
| Figure 4.1 Economic Approach | Figure 4.9 Summer Fallow Opportunity Costs |
| Figure 4.2 Per Acre Results, Transgenic Canola | Figure 4.10 Relative Use of Herbicides (tonnes) |
| Figure 4.3 Per Acre Results, Conventional Canola Varieties | Figure 4.11 Transgenic Canola Impact on Herbicide Consumption |
| Figure 4.4 Gross Margin Analysis | Figure 4.12 Fuel Savings for Transgenic Canola |
| Figure 4.5 Acres in Transgenic and Conventional Canola | Figure 4.13 Canola Prices and Production, 1982-2000 |
| Figure 4.6 Annual and Cumulative Economic Impacts of Transgenic Canola | Figure 4.14 Trends in Selected Commodity Prices, 1982-2000 |
| Figure 4.7 Direct Economic Impact, Producer Survey Estimate | Figure 4.15 Multiplier Impacts of Transgenic Canola |
| Figure 4.8 Opportunity Costs of Transgenic Canola | Figure 4.16 Cumulative Direct and Secondary Impacts of Transgenic Canola |
| Table 4.1 Canola Price and Yield | Table 4.7 Summer Fallow Opportunity Costs |
| Table 4.2 Input Prices | Table 4.8 Fuel Savings - Transgenic Canola |
| Table 4.3 Total and Distribution of Acres Harvested by Canola Production System | Table 4.9 Commodity Price Correlations |
| Table 4.4 Comparative Per Acre Returns, Costs, and Gross Margin, Crop Production Year: 2000 | Table 4.10 Economic Multipliers |
| Table 4.5 Aggregate Model Results, Transgenic Canola | Table 4.11 Accumulative Economic Impacts of Transgenic Canola Production Systems |
| Table 4.6 Aggregate Model Results, Conventional Canola | |
| 5.0 Summary and Conclusions | |
| Table 5.1 Producer Per Acre Estimates | Table 5.2 Direct Economic Impact |